Natural hazards increase propensity of mortgage default

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mortgage default, as real estate backed loans play a key role in our financial system. understanding mortgage default risk will not only provide guidance for designing stress testing scenarios but also help improve underwriting practices and enhance pricing of mortgage products.

 · The paper presents a unified model of the competing risks of mortgage termination by prepayment and default, considering the two hazards as dependent competing risks that are estimated jointly. It also accounts for the unobserved heterogeneity among borrowers, and estimates the unobserved heterogeneity simultaneously with the parameters and.

Credit where credit is due: Drivers of subprime credit – show that bankruptcy rates among subprime auto borrowers increase by 1.14 percentage points following natural disasters in states with strong creditors’ rights, compared to a 0.58 percentage-point increase in states with more borrower protection. In placebo analyses on different types of borrowers, we find no increase in

An illustrative model of natural hazard mortgage risk To provide a truly complete picture of propensity to default, the mortgage default model must include the traditionally omitted likelihood of natural hazard risk in addition to the standard assessment based on creditworthiness, ability to pay, loan terms and down payment.

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individuals in financial distress and find that repossessions increase the likelihood of bankruptcy and reduce future access to credit. Results from a quasi-experimental setting show that bankruptcy rates among subprime auto borrowers increase twice as much following natural disasters in states with

"Our research demonstrates that borrowers, after controlling for their propensity to default based on traditional mortgage credit characteristics, default at a higher rate the higher the propensity of natural disaster is at the property level." Accounting for natural disasters

"Our research demonstrates that borrowers, after controlling for their propensity to default based on traditional mortgage credit characteristics, default at a higher rate the higher the propensity of natural disaster is at the property level," CoreLogic economists Katie Dobbyn and Mark Fleming wrote in their article, The Nature of Risk.

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